Sunday, 31 December 2006

The great divergence

Right...so here we have it. An interesting phenomena contrary to what should normally happen. Traditionally EUR/USD and GBP/USD normally follow pretty similar patterns. On that basis, and given that the GBP pair is more volatile, typically we see both going green or red at the same time with the GBP pair showing a greater magnitude of change. Yet, here we see that the EUR pair far surpass the GBP pair and the 5 min charts differ.

So I really wonder if this is a sign to buy into GBP/USD. I'm gonna try anyway. To be absolutely honest, I still haven't found the time and discipline to ask what I want outta doing forex, or whether I shld continue. But like I told Firman, I'll be sure to do it before the end of the first week of 2007.

Meanwhile, I pray everyone has a meaningful 2007!

3 comments:

eusof said...

Thank you for your wish for us for the new year 2007.
About the this article, i dont quite get it. I mean i dont understand why is it a great buy, the GBP/USD and also the Euro/USD.
Perhaps you can enlighten a newbie like me with a basic level of explanation.
Thank you william.

eusof said...

Thank you for the wish William.
I dont quite understand why is it a good buy for the pair GBP/USD and Euro/ USD.
If possible, would you care to enlighten me at the very basic level possible.
I do observe that the trend was going down. But isnt at it peak already? Why buy?
Sorry i am not an expert. Just wanna learn.

Thank you William.

FinancialSeeker said...

haha...thank you for your thanks Eusof. Well, I was saying it might be a good time to look at going into a long for GBP/USD.
You are right to say that the EUR/USD is pretty high now. Why I suggested buying GBP is because traditionally the EUR and GBP follow very similar patterns.
I believe the divergence will close, but I'm also taking this time to learn if there can be exceptions.
Strictly speaking, for the to pairs to converge in terms of their patterns can also mean the situation takes a different turn, that EUR/USD declines. It is just instinct that I didn't go with this though.