I'm freaking late!

"Freaking" is a word I commonly use these days. And I guess it expresses a sense of exasperation. After all, things are moving as fast as I hope they can. Which really is my fault, since my effort in some aspects is either really lacking or non-existent.

But after opening the IBFX platform last friday, today I finally found the time and will to sit down and figure out which are the Support/Resistance lines for 5 pairs - GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF AND AUDUSD. To be honest, I don't know why I put in the last one. It just seems like the aussie is an attractive pair to trade. I took slightly more than an hour to complete the SR lines for all 5 pairs using the monthly and weekly charts. Haven't managed to collect info like how many times the lines were tested respectively though.

And it really is some sort of art trying to figure out which lines should be drawn. As with sculpturing, I'm starting from scratch. I'm just trying out the tools and trying to learn the ropes (or rules). I'm sure I've drawn too many lines. But that doesn't matter I think.

Anyway, using the lines I've drawn. I'm gonna embark on my backtesting of 1000 trades. An outline of what to do have been drawn up. I'm basically gonna test some hypothesis. And my testing will tell me whether my hypothesis stands and how well they perform. I'm doing some basic math modules that deal with uncertainty and risk, and I wonder if I can use the knowledge to analysis my methodologies and results. But that aside, my first hypothesis is that SR lines A)are strong supports when price tests the line from above, and B)they are strong resistance when price tests the line from below. Effectively that means this hypothesis is that whenever price tests any SR line, it should bounce off the line and return in the direction it was coming from.

This one is pretty easy to test, and probably will be proven wrong in no time. My backtesting will have to be to long whenever (A) occurs and short whenever (B) occurs.

My second hypothesis involves the use of trend indicators to establish the strength of the SR lines. Basically if the trend indicator indicates a downward trend, and price is testing a SR line from above, then the SR line's strength as a support is uncertain. If however, the price was testing a SR line from below, then it is that the SR line would be strong as a resistance. The opposite also is possibly true.

So the testing for this hypothesis is as follows:
1. Long if a support is tested from above and trend is up.
2. Short if a resistance is tested from below and the trend is down.

Third hypothesis. By using momentum/strength indicators(MSI) (eg. Stochastic/Relative Strength Index etc), we can tell the strength of the trend relative to the strength of SR lines. The testing will take the form of:-
1. Long when price approaches either C)support line when MSI points to a weak trend
or D)resistance lines when MSI points to a strong trend
2. Short when price approaches either E)support line when MSI points to a strong trend
or F)resistance lines when MSI points to a weak trend

FOR FITNESS, I think I've gotten better. I made plans to run about 3 times a week. But weather wasn't too good yesterday. And I still some strain from my slightly sprained ankle. I was thinking I was just making more excuses. But I seriously don't want to worsen any injury (if mine can even be considered one). I'll start next week.