Back from the Big "O"

Haha...if that gives you the idea that I'm referring to something sexual, you must have not read my blog before. Well..."O" is for ORIENTATION! And what I just came back from is the camp for NUS Arts Faculty!

And now I'm on a emotional high! It's always sad to leave those fun times, but what I brought away are lotsa memories and a whole new bunch of friends to start uni with! (Sorry about this post, cos it isn't biz or economical in nature)

It's kinda late though and I might be having a long day of tuition tomorrow. So let's see what updates I can make sometime later yeah.

Meanwhile you guys out there have fun!

The Flaw of Capitalism

But, still, there's hope.

I think this news must have gotten to most people now. Brick workers in China being abducted or lured using sweet words to work in brick factories where they are ill-treated and poorly paid, if paid at all. And the best thing is there are appears to be some cover up on the law enforcement's end.

And this is not an isolated event. Neither is it limited to China or any single period of time. I believe slavery and abuse have been practiced from ages unknown till this moment.

And in some sense, it is actually the moral gap that surfaces in any capitalistic system. The fact is the system, assuming I'm right about the profit motive, drives companies or producers to cut cost to gain the most profit. And this sometimes occurs at the expense of human welfare. Or should I say that always occurs? While we try to get goods at lower prices, sometimes we have to ask ourselves if we are selling our conscience, simply because the dollars you save caused some others to lose precious time, comfort or even their lives.

Informed consumerism is a keyword we have to look at having known such realities like sweatshop and child labour. And in this case, forced labour. In fact, does it sound very different from rape in the activity's nature?

But the same system that caused the profit motive and problems would solve itself. Through a more perfect flow of information, we would know what to choose to buy or reject.

And if that sounds impossible to achieve, the real issue is if we have the conscience and heart to choose the right, over obvious benefits like enjoying more goods.

Downtimes

Would it be surprising that I'm undergoing a rough path at work? Well, just part and parcel of life I suppose. I honestly don't quite know how to put in words what I've been going through at work over the past 2 days.

To sum it all up, I'm just more willing to quit my job. I don't feel there's much to hold me back now, since I am aware of the complaints against me. There's a Chinese saying that says the wise knows when to go and come at the right times. And this is a time to leave.

It's not some injustice I suffered though. It would be without doubt that their complaints are true. I use the internet during working hours, my chats with colleagues from the corporate sales side is a "little too loud", I go for break that are a little too long. And the best one is that I slack on the job. I slack? Well, I haven't quite seen my predecessor do more work in a week as compared to what I complete in a day. My team, which include my colleague and I, covered up a backlog of an entire month's work in a mere 2 weeks.

And what are we told? The previous guys in my position said this job can be completed with OTs(overtimes). Well, I should say to my superiors that they should learn how to fire those who can't and can't be bothered to work then. Is it not more important that I finish more than a day's work on a daily basis than focus on my inequities?

To be fair, my supervisor was nice, truly, to have not mentioned all this to me until I approached him to discuss when I should resign. He thought he really didn't have to bother me about such things since we were doing our work, coupled with the fact that I'm leaving soon. But alas! It revealed to me the undercurrents of politics and arrow pointing in a corporate environment. And in a recent chain of events, I realised there's tai-chi, an ancient Chinese martial arts school and philosophy, played in this company.

Well, enough said for now. I'm just looking forward to a good break, away from unseen eyes which spys on and scrutinizes our every action and dangerous mouths that spit forks of flame and daggers to your back.

And I think I should think about how to avoid having a job in future.

Hopefully my free time is used properly to increasing my forex power in July.

Interesting times for USD

While the USD is still on a long term upward trend according to the 200day moving average, the recent events, particularly over the past 3 trading days. With almost no particular news on forexfactory.com that is in USD's favour and GBP's detriment, the G/U pair actually dropped some 300 pips!

So there's the drop on the daily, which came to be quite a shock to me at first. My mentor told me that the downward trend since mid April is actually a retracement of the previous uptrend since early March, and that the long term trend is still upward as indicated by the blue line beneath all the price action.

Well, nevertheless, i drew channels for the current uptrend as well. In fact I drew it for the downtrend since mid April and the uptrend for the past 2 weeks. And so on the 4 hour graph that's what I saw. The red arrow indicates where I first observed the situation where the price is sandwiched between the upward and downward channel.

I boldly predict that the market doesn't know where to go now, and it would decide by entering either the short-term upward or medium-term downward channel. On that day itself, it was the last few hours of the market when the trend entered the downward channel. And so I shorted the pair at 1.9668. My current SL for that position is at 1.9750 and the TP at 1.9550. A risk of close to 100 pips and a reward of 200+ pips. So that's a comfortable risk-reward ratio.

And this is truly paper trading. Because I didn't even open a position using virtual cash on the platform, but stuck a post-it note on my desk to remind me of this action.

And the reason for the drop? Was anyone wondering? To me it's pretty technical. On the daily chart, the big selloff started when Parabolic SAR dots reversed and the Stachostics crossed too. I had a look at forexfactory.com's news indicators and found nothing that would have given the USD such a boost. In fact, the news there were very much more in favour of the Pound.

So I consulted Grace Cheng(or rather, her blog). And she told me that yields on 10-year Treasury Bonds have hit highs, beyond 5%, apparently a high for the past 11 mths. And there are speeches made by guys at the Fed Reserve that indicate they are still willing to up overnight interest rates to curb inflation, which is still seen as a threat. Well, I do have to agree 3% per annum is a little too high.

Anyway, I think she can say it better, so you guys can read her post at http://www.gracecheng.com/blog/413/Forex%20universe%20revolves%20around%20USD.html

I think I'm moving towards a professional trading system and practice. Haha, and it is said right, that "I think, therefore I am"?

Wishing all traders and friends out there a great week ahead!

A Call to all Service Providers

Now, as a semi-service provider myself, I would like to bring this attention to all those who face challenging customers, especially when they complain.

Read this article in The Star, a English-medium Malaysian newspaper, which featured a political viewpoint. That there should be a "third way" in politics. The essence being that not all who criticise are against you or the organisation. Instead, the key proponent of this concept said that "those who don't care, don't bother to speak".

And this is easily applied to the service sector. In fact, as long as there is human interaction, there are bound to be unhappiness because there are imperfections in much that goes on around us.

So how do we respond? Do we groan and complain to our colleagues? But why do that? To gain some sympathy? Well, on the other hand, complaints allow us an avenue to know what can and is going wrong, and is moving in the counterproductive direction.

So remember guys, THOSE WHO DON'T CARE, DON'T BOTHER TO SPEAK.

PS. Had my hair cut and styled, looked pretty out of place on my head, but no issue with that ego issue I mentioned earlier. Doesn't quite have an effect on how I feel, just that I have a much lighter head.

Trades and such

Haha. To be honest, there will be no mention of specific trades here. Well...I did do a trade. But it was in a sheepish effort to gain some pips. Imagine, all that just to gain more money in paper trading.

Well, as previously said, I've been reading this book at Times. And I completed it yesterday, and I still plan to go back to read it up once or twice more while I'm still at working at my current position.

By the way, the title is "Adventures of a Currency Title" and I highly recommend it to everyone who is thinking of, or is involved in, Forex trading. One of the reviews put it very well. Raghee Horner said "The search for the Holy Grail (of successful trading) begins and ends in the heart and mind(of the trader)". And that is amazingly true. Because we can always buy a system, or learn how to decide on which trades are low in risk but high in profit, but we can never buy or acquire discipline. In fact, the main character, when guided by a mentor, was never told how to decide on trades.

There were 3 rules. And here they are:
1. Thou shalt not lose more than 25% of thine account.
2. Thou shalt test before trading.
3. Thou shalt stand accountable to another person in thine trading.

And that sums up what Harry, yes, that's the main characters name, was taught or induced to develop by his mentor. And the end is beautiful, because the person Harry stood accountable to was his wife.

Maybe I can hope for Miranda to join me in this journey.

Reflections and Doubts on my character PART 2

So here comes the actual stuff I'm supposed to talk about earlier this morning. These thoughts were actually triggered after watching Spiderman 3 the movie.

Just a slight deviation again. Been reading a very expensive book at Times Bookstore. It's a first-person narrative of a person's journey in learning how to trade forex. And one important lesson today is this: The person who wants to and depends on winning most would not win. Simply because when one's survival depends on trading, he tends to trade emotionally without a system. And that's a killer. The best trader trades according to his system, checking his every trade against a list of factors that must be met before he enters a position, and knowing that the system has a certain long term yield which would not be undermined by short term losses. So it's not about trading more or less, winning more or less pips, but following one's system and perfecting one's discipline.

Ok. Back to topic. I just got back from Malaysia, and one of the highlights of the trip is collecting a photo album done some 2 months back. Well, my relative set up a bridal boutique, which, of course, does more than simply bridal stuff. So our entire family was convinced to have an album done. Just in time for my 21st birthday. But that doesn't matter.

And this thought, supported by other events in my life, arises. I can look good. Well, not boastful at all I hope. But at least I can look more acceptable than what I appear as now. And I told my girlfriend that I should have my hair done with her at a saloon. A proper haircut. First in my life. And that I should go for some sort of makeover. I can feel my confidence growing.

But is it certainly positive?

Remember what spiderman did when he was infested with the "black creature"? The way he treated his ex-girlfriend (sorry, I truly have no aptitude for names) at the jazz bar. I know the cause is the evil nature of the "black stuff" that affected him. But can looking better, and thereby boosting my ego, lead me down the same road? I've been discussing, with my girlfriend, her concern about the possibility I might look for another girl during my varsity days. Is that possible? I can't even say it's an absolute negative.

Maybe I shouldn't change.

I wonder what the future holds.

Reflections and Doubts on my character PART 1

Just before I go into the topic proper for today, let me just say I've been in Malaysia for the past 4 days and learnt some stuff from my Dad. And did some thinking on my own too. From my Dad:

1. Our Western counterparts in America, Britain and many other European nations, apparently, have access to more sophiscated investment tools than what we have in Asia, or at least in Singapore. While it is common to hear returns of an average of 5% to 8% per annum locally for mutual funds, the corresponding rate in the States is around 20%, according to my father.

2. Wanna know why MNCs choose to rent properties for their offices instead of buy the space when they expand abroad? And they do that despite the huge probability that the value of prime land appreciates over time, and the fact that they can well afford to buy properties. Odd isn't it? Here's my father's take on it. Corporations aren't interest in anything that doesn't give them 20% returns a year, or at least a similar benchmark rate of returns. Can they be assured of 20% increase in property value over the long run? Well, not quite. And even if it's possible in boom times like recent years, they still sustain huge costs in administation and loan burdens in owning such properties.

And my thoughts struck me the last of the trip. In some sense they are simply extensions of the earlier post on "luck"...but I do realise that life indeed works that way! The Chinese have this saying that goes "An army has to be fed for a thousand days, but would be deployed usefully in just but a day". Pretty poor translation there, but the main point is that all major successes are built over a long period of ardous effort. Another saying goes "the performance lasts 3 minutes, but it takes one 3 years to prepare for it". Again, this saying reflects that spirit of vast preparations required for a short period which people can judge and value your skills and abilities.

Which, come to think of it, is very reflective of life, even in modern times. A middle school (or secondary school, in local context) student would spend some 4 years preparing for just one examination to prove his/her worth in the world of academics, and even then this system is insufficient to judge his aptitude for knowledge. And all things work this way. We prepare in all ernesty to face the task when it comes. And all our efforts goes unrecognised without the test.We face the same end if our prepartions are insufficient or are not done in the right way.

And, it might shock some of you guys who hear this, it applies to dying. In fact, it's an epitomy of sorts. We prepare for death (if we ever do), but yet we can never know when it comes knocking on our doors. Which means we have to be constantly alert, and do full preparations while we are still alive and kicking. Not unlike life and its challenges. In fact, all our effort is directed in building networks, learning to be smart, acquiring knowledge and much more is a prelude to the test, which could be an unexpected situation that is thrown at us. We prove ourselves in the "3 minutes on stage" when we face our audience. Maybe our bosses, managers, relatives, friends, family etc.

So put in all your effort and be always on the alert for opportunities yeah!

I think I would talk about my reflections on the Spiderman 3 later, pretty tired now.