Sunday 28 September 2008

Cambodia - My inhumanity

I came back from Cambodia about 34 hours. Haven't done much though. No work, no assignments. Just had 2 tuitions. And I'm in the midst of another. Left my student some work to do though.

My inhumanity. I didn't shed a tear visiting the Tuol Sleng Prison or the Killing Fields. Both were extremely moving and meant a lot of pain and a great deal of suffering for victims involved. I suspect that it was also difficult for those who were executing and torturing the victims.

I felt disconnected. At the Killing Fields, the guide for the site was just odd. So odd that many of us forgot his suffering (his entire family was killed by Khmer Rouge) and concluded (at least temporarily) that he has gone mad (or gotten a screw loose in his head) from staying on the site since 1980.

I missed his pain totally! I can't believe I was that insensitive to have not seen him as another human being. My friend, and travel mate, Joshua told me that I lacked the sociological training. I think not. I lack humanity. I lack compassion. I was trapped in my small little world, and couldn't see that there was some very severe conditions and occurences that was in this part of the world. And in HIS WORLD too.

On speaking to Vindy and Joshua, and hearing their interpretations of the guide's odd behaviour (like asking what bullet it is to the westerners during the guided tour - an M16 round), I was in shock. I didn't know! I wish I understood the significance of all our guide did and said. I wish I could detect his anguish in his eyes. I wish (much later) that I could relieve some of the pain.

And the significance of the M16 - 5.56mm - round is this: It was used in an American rifle. The M16 was developed by the US in response to the russian AK47. Who was behind Pol Pot? Was he really communist? I've no answers. But the bullet sure says something.

Later over a drink, I realised how useless my buddhist beliefs and practices were in terms of dealing with the negativity that was generated over the trip. I couldn't do anything about the suffering. Not then (in 1975-79) and not even now. I couldn't pray or wish away the pain. I wonder how much negativity I brought away by doing tonglen.

This later prompted me to go for the Pchum Ban festival (akin to Singapore's Hungry Ghost Festival) at a temple in Phnom Penh though. Second time I missed sleep for this event. But it took on a new meaning because I imagined the amount of trauma that is faced by the living and the dead because of those 4 years.

I hope this lesson stays with me. I hope I don't prematurely judge others in future. I pray I always listen to - and imagine - their stories fully next time.

I pray peace comes upon all who suffered or is suffering because of the events that occurred from 1975 to 1979 in Cambodia, the then Kampuchea.

Friday 22 August 2008

From playing with sand to...

7th AUG: Today I decided to build the Great Wall of China. And so I did. Nothing major happened. Just that it left me with a huge backache that lasted 3 days before it subsided.
14th AUG: I aspired to build/sculpt a model of the Effiel Tower. Inspired by Yin Har actually, one of my best university friends. Got me thinking about how to do something special for my gf, Miranda. But guess what? I didn't manage to get the sandpile up to my desired height. I wanted something around my waist. And before I could even reach that it COLLAPSED!!
There you see! The left (or is it right?) side collapsed. On hindsight, I could have still carved it. But I decided to go for something else.

And that something else is a classical buddhist hand symbol. It looks like an OK sign.
But according to Wikipedia (the worse academic resource to possibly quote from), "The Vitarka mudrā ("mudrā of discussion") is the gesture of discussion and transmission of Buddhist teaching." But my discussion, I mean the sculpture collapsed because I sensed the movement of the 3rd finger when I was carving some details, but didn't realise it's a sign of impending collapse. Which means my sculpture was structurally unsound. So by the time I thought of taking pictures, I'm just left with an amateurish index finger and thumb portion. This talk about understanding and reading signs seems to come from Paulo Coehlo.

21st AUG: I built 2 sandpiles TOO CLOSE to the water! Argh! And I had to abandon both in the end. But I discovered an interesting fact today. That the natural weight of the sand does a much better job at compressing and giving rise to the structural integrity of the sand below the surface level. So thus, when it rained, I went to an area when the sand was much coarser and dug. And wa-la! I dug deep enough to reach my waist with my feet in the hole.

My idea is to build a Chinese-styled roof and house a simple (read: I can't do a complex one) image of a Buddha inside.

This took me a lot of effort blowing! Blowing is done using a straw (duh!) to get rid of sand which cannot be gotten rid of using tools.

The abstract outline of a Buddha statue. Meant to be 2D.
The completed work looked impressive to me. (Allow me some self-boast, since I never thought i could finish this, especially the roof) The Buddha looks amateurish, I admit. And he has abs! Haha... Maybe it's my wish that I have abs too? In the midst of carving, I was interrupted by some staff of Sentosa. (They basically manage the island) And they kindly requested me to cover the hole when I'm done. Pretty sad isn't it? But as with many things in life, we must learn to let go. And so I did cover the big hole when i left. To at least 90% I think.
What is interesting is that I managed to do another piece. This one is basically a rudimentary and experimental sculpture of a castle with spiral stairs. It's not quite elegant. But a good try for a start. Lessons learnt!
7 AUG21st AUG
These 2 times when I build sandpiles too close to the water taught me one thing. LET GO! In some sense it's the concept of stoploss used in forex trading. When one knows the position is a bad one, one should cut losses as earlier as possible and look for another opportunity. Exactly what I did in these cases.

My sexy back view! (according to Miranda)
I really really enjoy sculpting! It's not so much about expression anymore. I started out doing this because I wanted to find some means of expression. It was and is in line with my idea of including some form of arts in my life.

But my work attracted people. Not many. But a handful. Usually tourists. In sculpting, I talked to people from India, Dubai, Pakistan, China, Vietnam, and Taiwan. And I bet that list will grow as I put more of my ideas on sand. I'm glad my work is appreciated by some, even if it's just a few. Thanks to all who gave me wonderful comments and noted my efforts!

Tuesday 19 August 2008

I'm freaking late!

"Freaking" is a word I commonly use these days. And I guess it expresses a sense of exasperation. After all, things are moving as fast as I hope they can. Which really is my fault, since my effort in some aspects is either really lacking or non-existent.

But after opening the IBFX platform last friday, today I finally found the time and will to sit down and figure out which are the Support/Resistance lines for 5 pairs - GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF AND AUDUSD. To be honest, I don't know why I put in the last one. It just seems like the aussie is an attractive pair to trade. I took slightly more than an hour to complete the SR lines for all 5 pairs using the monthly and weekly charts. Haven't managed to collect info like how many times the lines were tested respectively though.

And it really is some sort of art trying to figure out which lines should be drawn. As with sculpturing, I'm starting from scratch. I'm just trying out the tools and trying to learn the ropes (or rules). I'm sure I've drawn too many lines. But that doesn't matter I think.

Anyway, using the lines I've drawn. I'm gonna embark on my backtesting of 1000 trades. An outline of what to do have been drawn up. I'm basically gonna test some hypothesis. And my testing will tell me whether my hypothesis stands and how well they perform. I'm doing some basic math modules that deal with uncertainty and risk, and I wonder if I can use the knowledge to analysis my methodologies and results. But that aside, my first hypothesis is that SR lines A)are strong supports when price tests the line from above, and B)they are strong resistance when price tests the line from below. Effectively that means this hypothesis is that whenever price tests any SR line, it should bounce off the line and return in the direction it was coming from.

This one is pretty easy to test, and probably will be proven wrong in no time. My backtesting will have to be to long whenever (A) occurs and short whenever (B) occurs.

My second hypothesis involves the use of trend indicators to establish the strength of the SR lines. Basically if the trend indicator indicates a downward trend, and price is testing a SR line from above, then the SR line's strength as a support is uncertain. If however, the price was testing a SR line from below, then it is that the SR line would be strong as a resistance. The opposite also is possibly true.

So the testing for this hypothesis is as follows:
1. Long if a support is tested from above and trend is up.
2. Short if a resistance is tested from below and the trend is down.

Third hypothesis. By using momentum/strength indicators(MSI) (eg. Stochastic/Relative Strength Index etc), we can tell the strength of the trend relative to the strength of SR lines. The testing will take the form of:-
1. Long when price approaches either C)support line when MSI points to a weak trend
or D)resistance lines when MSI points to a strong trend
2. Short when price approaches either E)support line when MSI points to a strong trend
or F)resistance lines when MSI points to a weak trend

FOR FITNESS, I think I've gotten better. I made plans to run about 3 times a week. But weather wasn't too good yesterday. And I still some strain from my slightly sprained ankle. I was thinking I was just making more excuses. But I seriously don't want to worsen any injury (if mine can even be considered one). I'll start next week.

Monday 11 August 2008

Back on track (pun unintended)!

Haha, following my last post, today is the "post (about my forex plan) later today"...which is really a "tomorrow" by yesterday's standards.

For fitness, nope, I still haven't ran a single bit since I last lost the war against IPPT. But I did go back to doing chin ups and sit ups. For the record, I can safely say I am now able to achieve the pass standard for IPPT - 6 chin ups. I'm thinking of doing some charts on a piece of mahjong paper and putting them up on the wall. To remind me of what has been achieved and what more can be. In fact, that sounds like a good exercise for anything major in life. So there's financial, academics, love, social, etc etc

Anyway, I'm ultra late in executing my plan to pull my socks up as a forex trader. Oh wait, to sidetrack a little, I lost all my data on my expenditure which I've been recording in my hp since 12 days ago (which is the start of August). I guess that teaches me about backing up data. Especially when I have a laptop which seems affected by either a worm or virus.

Anyway, on to my detailed forex plan. First the timeline.

8 Aug Finalise Forex plan
9 Aug - 8 Sept Test method 1
9 Sept - 8 Oct Test method 2
9 Oct - 8 Nov Test method 3

In the midst of typing this post, I thought I had already done this sometime back. I checked, twice. And I realised I am way behind in my blogging. MANY things and incidents that I think is worthy of mention is left out. Mostly unintentionally.

Anyway, the approaches I'm taking is going to be very foundational and traditional tools of technical analysis. Support and Resistance lines, Triangles and Channels. I haven't figured how to trade all of those. But I have quite a detailed test plan out for the first. (That again warrants another post - it's way to long to subsume under this one) But one thing is certain, I need to be doing at least 1000 backtested trades per window of 1 mth.

So that's that, I got a few of my friends to passively check my progress, which means they won't hound me if I don't do anything which I plan to do, but I would send some reports or reflections to them at the end of each period. Serves as a motivation to me. I (hopefully) tend to work harder when we think I need to disclose how much I've accomplished.

Sunday 10 August 2008

Lagging... I'm slacking...

ARGH! I am freaking slow! My life which was so filled with direction and aims and goals and programs stopped completely for the past 2 days. Haven't gone ahead to fulfil schedules for my forex trading, fitness etc etc.

But today's a good day to start again. After all, school's starting! I don't quite know if I welcome the sem. Well, I do, but I just have my concerns. (But who doesn't yeah?) Arranged to meet my academic advisor for the very first time today! And that's after email exchanges since 2 months ago I think.

Plus I'll go back to seeing my nus mates with much greater frequency. Haha, but I'm gonna be such an econs-freak this sem because I am taking 4 major modules. But I'll still keep my sanity with 2 usp mods. The new one costs me A LOT of points! Just bidpoints though.

And I would like to welcome all freshies that I have met, no matter how brief that meeting was, to NUS Fac of Arts and Social Sciences. I hope you guys and girls have lotsa fun and find learning and exams not too much a bore. Learning definitely isn't if it's taken in the right spirit. But I totally can't say the same for exams.

I guess I'll talk about my forex plans later today. Alright, have fun till then!

Monday 4 August 2008

Playing with sand!

A few days back I was at the beach with my best secondary school friends. Just 4 guys who were really bored and ended up on sentosa's beach. After having tried my hand at sandsculpting (of sorts) during an earlier trip with the beach with Miranda and friends, I brought my tools (garden spades) again to see if I have the chance to have some fun.

And guess what? My friends were game for it and even sculpted some of their own stuff. We tried (and failed) to make a watch tower. And I thought we could make it a part of the Great Wall of China thing. That was when I learnt that my ability to stack sand to a decent height is not decent at all.

Looking closely, we actually did pretty well - if we were trying to make a volcano.

But later we (at least I did) still got our tan, and in our last hour on the beach, I sculpted a squarish watch tower by going subterrain - digging into the existing sandbed, rather than building upwards.

And here's how it looked like.


But I think the prize for the best sculpture surely goes to Zhidong, who carved a nice turtle out! (there should have been eggs)


And as the story goes, the turtle swam from the water to the shore towards to mountains!

Anyway, after a very fun day, we ended up with this!


And I figured out that I wanted to learn more about sand sculpting. Guess I'll go back to the beach more often to have fun while tanning!

Saturday 2 August 2008

Fitness plans

Just a very short update. And I hope this doesn't bore you. Part of my intention of more intensive blogging is to provide material for reference and reflection when I need them in future. So some posts might really seem pretty useless, boring, or even annoying. ("WHY DID HE HAVE TO BLOG ABOUT THAT SILLY THING??")

Anyway, in line with the requirements of the Ministry of Defence, I am to pass my IPPT (physical fitness test) in 2 months. Judging by my performance during my last test, I need to buck up on mainly my pull-ups (did 5 out of the 6 required) and running (didn't finish even half of the required 2.4km distance).

Also, I want to strengthen my sit-ups, so thus I launch a three-pronged approach to passing. I'm already in the midst of applying the first and third aspect. I do pull-ups whenever I go to Miranda's place (since there's a fitness station nearby) and when I don't get to do any in a day, I do 30 push-ups.

As for sit-ups, I started off with doing 40 sit-ups every night when I get home or before I sleep. But I realised I didn't have any reaction from my body (in terms of aches during the following day). So I tried doing 2 sets of 40 sit-ups, still no response. I realised the problem is that doing sit-ups do not target my abdomen muscles directly. So after some thought and consulting a friend, I switched to crunches today. I wonder what the effect will be, but it sure seemed more difficult to do 50 crunches. I'm considering if I should hold and count to eight/ten rather than just contracting my abs momentarily on every count.

As for runs, I really haven't decided how to go about it. I was thinking I should run twice a week. Maybe even thrice, even though I don't quite enjoy running. The short term goal is certainly to complete 2.4km in 12 minutes. But the long term goal is to join my friend at Standard Chartered Bank's Marathon. I was told it's 10km. That probably qualifies as a fun run as compared to the full-fledged 42km marathon. So that would mean I need to do endurance training too.

Thursday 31 July 2008

Goal setting

Inspired by my birthday that has just passed by me, coupled with the fact that I really have too much time on my hands now (since I hold no jobs, unlike a couple of my uni friends who are still working very hard just before school starts), I decided I needed a plan to go forward.

Oh, another source of inspiration is reading Adventures of a Currency Trader once again. My fourth or fifth read of the book I think. So much of what my goals entail concerns my financial health and expenditure/income management. I'll go into detail some other time, since I think they aren't quite finalised as yet.

I was also inspired by dance, having taken a basic waltz course at Whypong and Michelle Danceworld. The course was organised by the NUS Social and Ballroom dancing club. I realised that I really needed some form of artistic expression in my life. Probably partially fueled by the fact that Miranda and her siblings have their lives intersperse with various forms of music. One thing to look into is definitely to take up a course to learn Lindy Hop.

Fitness is high on the list too, since I'm supposed to pass IPPT (fitness test) within two months.

I'm tempted to start a new blog for every aspect of my life, but I think that might be a little too much for me to update and keep track of, even for myself. But I guess the least I can do now is to update this blog as often as possible.

Monday 28 July 2008

Thailand trip

Thanks to Qingren and Kah Chun for a wonderful trip up north to Thailand. I don't know if it's a land of a thousand smiles, but I'm quite sure for now it's a land where salesmanship (on the part of taxi drivers) can mean we end up lost, paying too much, at the wrong location or simply lost for words.

But despite all that, it was a wonderful trip. We had sufficient (QR would probably say too much) time for shopping in Bangkok (but interestingly, I either fail to bring the stuff back or bought the wrong sizes) and made 2 day trips to cities 2 hour's bus journeys from the capital. And those two were Ayutthaya (capital of earlier dynasty, around 15-16th century I think) and Kanchanaburi (death railway). Well, to me the highlight was the latter. First of all, they have a wonderful museum right within the immediate town area. Takes no more than 3 minutes on mini-bus (which only costs 10Baht a ride. Don't be fooled by those who extort more.) There you'll find many models which depict living conditions during the building of the railway. A very visual collection.

We later went to the Bridge over River Kwai, apparently famous, but I couldn't get much out of the place. That was the same with Ayutthaya, probably worse, because the museum gave virtually no information in anything other than Thai, despite being a world heritage site. We later spent another hour or so on a bicycle, visiting a war cemetary in the outskirts, padi and maize fields, cows, and a cave temple.

My biggest takeaway this trip is somewhat about history. I was at the war cemetary, quietly whispering a prayer for all dead, especially for those in war. And I was walking down the rows. Rows that look so dignified and beautiful (complete with plants and flowers, well maintained indeed). Home to those who died (mainly British in this cemetary) during the building of the railway. I think of a artsy film that I earlier watched - which informed me, in a subtle manner, of how the POWs' spirits and philosophy of life was superior to that of the devilish Japs. But the breaking point was reading the words left by the loved ones left behind by the late soldiers. I saw words from fathers, mothers, siblings, children, wives... Some of them reflected on what their beloved sons died for - peace. Some spoke of meeting again - in eternal bliss, hopefully. Yet others spoke of longing, remembrance, love. I couldn't not tear when I passed by those that spoke of the remains were those of "our (or my) son". I cannot imagine the anguish of losing a love one to something as stupid as a war. I've run out of words to describe such conflict and brutality. The message lives though. That war should and must be avoided. That peace and understanding is the only way for the human race to progress.

But not all tombstones had lines left behind. And not even all had names.


A soldier of the war. A soldier of the war. A soldier of the war.

That was all that was left of him. No one claimed some relationship to his bones even in death. Maybe no one could, for he was unidentifiable. But history is THIS. Unnamed people, positions, ranks, numbers, groups, formations, societies. After another 2 centuries (I dare say 50 years), who would remember this names? For the named soldiers, who would know of them and their personalities after their immediate families pass away? Probably no one, but right in our history lessons we learn that there was such a war and so many people died and they did this-and-that. And the reasons and trends was such-and-such.

WHAT IS THE POINT??

We should all stop to ponder on this. Somewhere, somehow, I recall that someone ever spoke of these lines to me: "We can avoid making mistakes we made earlier in our history in future if we truly understand our past." Note that there are two time phases there. Past and future. But read deeper. The past to us is nameless, and the future cannot be named for it hasn't come to pass. The only way that line is going to work is for the present to be involved, for numbers and statistics and academic studies cannot bring us the message and lessons from our past.

To fully comprehend and adopt these lessons, we need to be grounded in the present. Our current emotions and worldview and ideological (and moral) systems and codes. Our understanding of what happened previously. So we need bridges. In Singapore, the new generation has lived through at least 30 years of peace. No major conflicts which ends up in many deaths all at once. So we have to try to imagine the undesirability of wars and conflicts. We have to make up, in our mind, the hardships that those before us went through. But all this is not all that difficult. We just have to think of the times we came under threat, the fear, and maybe the bravery and camaderie such trying times resulted it. We could just reach deeper within us to recall times when we were hurt by others in various ways, and I'm sure we can all feel a small part of the soldiers' suffering.

We may be different, but we are really quite the same.

Birthday at Harry's

Hee.. so happy.. I came back, slightly tipsy, from Harry's @ Boat Quay. Went on a martini spree since I have a card which gets my martinis for 4 bucks! Just 4 bucks each man, and those at this outlet is darn gd!

And Miranda did the sweetest thing possible, to get the live band to dedicate the last song, before we left, to me. It's a samba number I think, titled Black Sugar. When I asked the band pointed to the lead singer, an African lady I suppose, and said she's the one that the title is referring to. Well, it really seemed quite funny at that point in time. Must have been the alcohol.

And we did more odd and outrageous things. Like we tried to dance some waltz on the way to Raffles Place MRT (train) station. Complete with laptop, tons of piano books, plastic bags (from Miranda's shopping). I'm sure you can see why we failed terribly.

And we jumped down a few steps. When we got into the train, we relived our childhood (in fact, doing the following doesn't even exist in my childhood) by turning round poles. Like run, hold on to the pole, do a 360 degree with your legs off the ground kinda thing. And we played a game of charades - always starting with "I pray...(whatever)"

It's my 22nd. And as was my 21st, it was you, Seet, who was there. No doubt I have a few friends who smsed me to wish me a happy birthday, but life couldn't possibly be complete without you and your thoughtfulness. (and antics too)

Hope you enjoyed yourself as much as I did, Miranda.

Tuesday 15 July 2008

Today I'm satisfied

Well...no long post today. A long post after a long time having not posted will put people (me included) off.

I met Seraphina today on a train back home from town. Now, who's Seraphina? Let's see...she's my ex-jc schoolmate, a classmate's netball teammate (I think)...not much more I can say I think...but I'm just glad that I met someone from jc and had a small chat.

And guess what? A stranger talked to me today on the very same train. Because I was holding a book by Paulo Coelho. Haha, and I guess we share quite a bit in common - educators, seekers of financial freedom, philosophers (at least I hope I am)

It's a good day. Not because of what happened, but because of what I interpreted and reacted to what happened.

And I started reading Adventures of a Currency Trader again. That's the kickstart the 2nd leg of my forex journey!

Sunday 15 June 2008

A long entry & some food for further research/thought

It’s been such a long time since I wrote anything, despite having the pretty frequent inspiration to write.

But in any case, what is lost cannot be recovered, especially when the “thing” is time. But this is no time to focus on lost time. Rather, I want to talk a little on what has been going on these 2 days, or rather, weeks.


Of course, there was Miranda’s birthday chalet. Although the 2nd day wasn’t quite as expected (we were planning to play war games – or at least dirty/gruesome ones), but the party on the first day really was quite impressive with the number of people and food and cake and…erh…kids! Yeap! Kids from her piano classes and a few from her sister’s, Denise’s, ones too. And I don’t think any of us could have forgotten this cute little by boy called…oops…I don’t know how to spell his name…but it’s pronounced “Joe-Vers”…


One more thing I want to mention…for those who are turned off by my occasional philosophical thoughts you can stop here…but I believe this is a pretty interesting issue to think about for most people.


The problem is probably age-old. Or more properly speaking, as old as the ages. The epic conflict between truth and wit, between honesty and craftiness. Which would enable us to succeed in life? Instinctively it seems the answer is the latter. Only by cheating and misleading one’s competitors/enemies can one succeed. Let him know your weakness and you’re done for. And much of our worldly wisdom points to using strategies and battle tactics to achieve success in whichever field we are in. Just for instance, since this series is what I am currently in hearing about, we have the Chinese classic “Sunzi’s Art of War” and “The 36 strategies”.


In modern military organisations we also have units which specialize in collecting intelligence – information about the enemy. This highlights the need for information and how much of that is concealed in perceived situations of rivalry and warfare. Even in economics we talk of asymmetric information – that any two parties engaged in an economic transaction will necessarily, or at least probably, have unequal access to information about the other person.


It seems to me that many of today’s economic problems arise because information is asymmetric. I still think that if we all had perfect information (despite the impossibility of such a situation), we would not have issues such as overpriced goods and exploited labour. Maybe I’m wrong, and I indeed should take time to think through the validity of my position.


But let’s get back to the real issue. Is truth really that valuable? In If Aristotle Ran General Motors, Tom Morris, business-philosopher, argued that anything less than absolute truth would cripple an organization’s ability to perform in a competitive market place. His reasoning is simple. Assuming there is some inconsistency in a firm’s management and they lie to their customers about the performance of their products, the workers within the firm would then feel that the management could also be inconsistent in the truth of what is told to the workers about, for example, their future in the company. The insecurity generated by the inconsistent/untruthful information released by any department of the company would cause other departments within the firm to second-guess the management motives in anything they do.


But is absolute truth really the answer to all our problems? Or is the opposite the reality? In a recent tuition session, I came to the conclusion that some theories might seem to point us to an ideal state of affairs, for example the communist ideal of equality for all, they might simply be useless to a human race incapable of communally achieving such situations. Insofar as the ideals are unattainable, the theories or hopes are, to that extent, not useful.


Maybe some theories, such as being brutally honest about everything aren’t quite that useful for us as social and political beings. Maybe we shouldn’t believe in free trade and its benefits.


P.S. Kelvin, if you happen to read this, please contact Firman or me. We’re pretty worried that we’ve not heard from you for so long.

Saturday 3 May 2008

End of exams/Start of holidays

"Every ending is another beginning, just that people are not aware of it at that point in time." (adapted from Five People You Meet in Heaven by Mitch Albom)

Alright. The exams are over. I'm fairly satisfied with my papers, but I know clearly that there are little chances of getting any A grades. I forecast I'll get B+ for all 3 modules and maybe B- for my writing module.

If that actually happens, I mean the latter part of my prediction, then I guess I'll quit the glorious University Scholars Programme. But I'll put that bad news or possibility aside for now.

Next up - the hols. So what am I to do? 3 months. A few key events - Miranda's birthday (21st - which means preparing nice gifts), physical fitness test with the army, getting my trading back on track. Seems like a job isn't too much in favour of a schedule of a person who needs to trade and want to catch up with people.

The standard celebrations (or gatherings) are in place - clubbing, drinking, lunches, dinners. There would be orientation for freshies later. And hopefully I get to go as a councillor with my friends.

And a few other hopes. One is to grow some vegetables/plants during these 3 months. Probably at my gf's place. And the second is to do some (a lot, I hope) exercise like kayaking, swimming, trekking etc.

Oh...and a trip to Thailand. That isn't quite that cheap, but hopefully is worth the money. Hia Hian, I heard, is the beach we're heading for.

More on my trading later. For now I've prepared some carrots and green beans for planting in the next few days.

Sunday 13 April 2008

McDonald's dilemma (the McCafe problem)

The Issue
Ok, to be utterly fair, it is really my problem. The case is this. Last Sunday, 13th April 2008, at about 2.30pm, I purchased a large Hot Chocolate drink at the McCafe/McDonald's Woodlands Civic Centre outlet. And then I took a seat, just one table, and started reading a Peter Duus' book on Japanese history. About an hour later, I heard a complaint from a mother (with 2 kids I think) waiting for a table. The comment was meant to be heard. Something about how inconsiderate it is to be studying when people are looking for tables to have a meal.

Shortly after that, as expected, the managers on duty represented McDonald's to point out a sign which was put up stating "Please refrain from studying during the following periods:...". And the poster indicated the "period" includes the whole of Saturdays and Sundays.

Now, that is perfectly fine. I admit that I was studying, since I was reading the book because I have to collect data for my history term paper. And the request (or order, depends on how you read it) to refrain from studying is right, since it seems McDonald's is a place to eat. By studying without consuming any meals, I am decreasing the revenue for the firm and preventing it from gaining more by having someone else have a seat and buy something more substantial than my $4.80 cup.

And so what was the solution? Well, I was told that I certainly could retain the seat, just by putting my books away. I could have been bitter, but I conformed, largely because I could do other things. (like write a draft for this blog and analyse the McDonald problem)

The Dilemma
Call me an academic, but I found an interesting viewpoint to the whole problem. It is a matter of structural lag (something I learnt in an introductory course to Sociology). It is a lag between what McDonald's is evolving into and what people think/expect McDonald's to be. Simply put, it is a clash of old and new.

Fundamentally, before McCafe was introduced to the Singapore consumers, McDonald's was a great place for fast food and to meet friends/business contacts. I think I aren't doing the chain any injustice by saying that it was (and still is, to some) simply a place for food. Therefore the moralistic view that one should leave after one is done with his food is pretty understandable, if not justified.

But then came McCafe, selling coffee and other premium drinks. So, without cracking our heads too much, it seems that McCafe is a competitor of Starbucks and Coffeebean and Tea Leaf. And I shall speak for myself as to what the latter companies stand for. They are places to relax ("chill" in colloquial terms), to meet up with friends for long chats, to study (for many secondary to tertiary students), to meet clients and to have a good cup of coffee (or any other "premium" drink). Notice I mentioned the coffee last? Not that it's not important, because I so love the Hot Choc at McCafe and Caramel Macchiato at Starbucks, and Caramel Ice-blended coffee at Coffeebean. But it really is more than the drink. I pay good money not only because those drinks are palatable and desirable, but also because I am paying "rent" for the seat I occupy for the time I spent in the coffee chain. And I wouldn't expect someone to be unhappy that I'm not finishing my drink fast enough or occupying the seat despite not consuming anything substantially.

Although in recent years, the latter companies also advise their customers against studying (especially during peak hours), it is a taken that reading leisurely is certainly not prohibited.

As a new consumer of McCafe, I wonder which attitude should I adopt - "eat and leave" or "stay because you paid 'rent'". I favour the latter, but I decided to consult McCafe on their vision of what sort of business they intend to grow into and the clientèle they target. I thought that would be evident from their slogan. To my great surprise, I only found vague statements like

"Pleasurable coffee moments at McCafé™" and "Premium coffee at great value™"

So that left me utterly confused. I had no clear indication of what McCafe is or wants to become.

The Lesson
Nevertheless, I think the takeaway I got from this incident is this: By introducing McCafe, McDonald's have thrown their consumers into confusion, especially at outlets where the McCafe consumers share the same domain with those of the fast-food McDonald. The expectations and meaning of time spent at McDonald's is very different for these two groups. While the chain has moved on to become a more comprehensive lifestyle brand, certain sections of its consumer base still sees the company as essentially a place to have a quick meal.

And as long as this difference of attitudes is not harmonised or resolved, we will always see McDonald's managers telling people to keep their books.

Sunday 6 April 2008

Limits of conceptual understanding (or concepts, simply)

This idea is far from developed, but I'm just gonna pen (read: type) it down to serve as a foundation for further thought and analysis at a later date.

The (series of) thought is ignited by Miranda's father. He mentioned something like "one can only enjoy a job if one puts aside all thoughts of limitations of the job at hand" which led me to think about the limitless nature of any object. (Now, that's very vague, I'll refine it as we go along.)

This entry is not meant to be some philosophical treatise on what is reality or what limits we face in our human life and experience. The end conclusion should be easily understood and be fully applicable to everyone in whatever they intend to do with their lives.

My thought is this: We resent or cannot accomplish some goal/task/ideal/project successfully because our thought is simply limited to an extremely narrow scope or understanding of what is at hand. That is to say, if I want to achieve good academic results for my final examinations, we tend to be really limited and think of what specific actions should be taken to actualise the final goal of, say, getting straight As for all my modules.

I can see 2 effects from such a limited and focused method of achieving the goal. One is that we get frustrated. Overdoing and focusing on such limited areas and tasks makes our overall mission extremely dry and repetitive. If I'm thinking of getting good grades all day for an entire period of 2 weeks, I'm sure I'll be very irritable during that time. The second is that we neglect other areas/secondary aims which in fact contribute to the achievement of our final mission. Factors such as maintaining our (physical and mental) health, being spiritually balanced, developing motivation and being inspired.

But at an even deeper level, every grand goal we have at every stage in life is never a standalone. No goals are accomplished in isolation. If I may quote a spiritual text, there goes a line that "accomplishing one [aim], one accomplishes all [aims]". Every single goal is meant to be, and supposed to be, a completion of our entire being and purpose for this life. That means in trying to be a top scholar, or develop a kind heart, I am really trying to accomplish a far greater mission - to develop my human potential to the fullest. Personally I also take that to mean to benefit as many as possible.

By maintaining this greater or more expansive view of our personal goals, we are not bounded by things like job scopes, ascribed roles, lists of responsibilities and other means of limitations placed on ourselves. I believe that's where we find real joy in whatever we do. When we truly put down our need to fulfil ourselves and our desires, but instead focus on the much bigger picture of the entire universe and its inhabitants, that is when we find greater motivation and joy to propel ourselves to fully achieve whatever aim we might have.

For this coming week, for my trading, I hope to refocus and build up my approach to the entire exercise. I'll write more on that later.

Monday 24 March 2008

Consecration of the Hindu temple

I hope this is as short as I want it to be.

It's really simple. Close to where I stay this Hindu temple held a major event to consecrate the compounds after having being refurbished with new carvings and interiors. I'm sure more than that changed, but I know not how to describe the rest.

The event was amazing. Many people waited in the sun to have a chance to enter the temple to seek the blessings of the Gods they so revere. I didn't dare try, and neither could I afford to wait. But I decided to stay around and see what is happening.

My takeaway? A appreciation for a particular line in a song I've been listening to. The line goes "I pray that enlightenment can be achieved in this lifetime" from Calling the Lama from Afar. I was nearly moved to tears. Probably I cried deep within me. Because that is the cry/plea/wish/aspiration of all devotees. Regardless of faith, beliefs or religion we belong to, we all hope that is achievable. To encounter the divine, to achieve enlightenment, to be reunited with God, to enter the paradise-heaven etc. All those individual perfect endings to the story called "life" hopefully can be attained within this lifetime. It doesn't matter if you believe in rebirth or reincarnation. Because the sum total of any faith is to achieve the perfect state within one's time on earth.

The universality of the line struck me. And for a brief moment, maybe I have a deeper understanding of universal truths, such as that all beings desire happiness.

Thursday 20 March 2008

Karma and Compassion

I was totally supposed to write this entry some 2 weeks back. But I kept delaying it and so now I have little to write. But first, I want to tell you guys to expect (possibly) shorter entries. I decided I should break my writing up so that my titles say more about the entry itself.

This title, which I saved as a blank post earlier in a bid to jolt my memory when I finally get to write, is doing no good. But I'll reflect on it from my current frame of mind. But I think it'll largely be on compassion.

I first thing I want to mentioned is the Tibetan term "tonglen". As far as I know, the term can be safely translated into "exchanging oneself for others" and involves the giving of one's merits/happiness for other people's suffering. Rather, it is to take on others' suffering. How is it, by any law of science or natural occurrence, possible, is a question I cannot answer. But I think at the gross level, it is very possible. Like one who pushes another away from the danger of being knocked by a oncoming car. At a subtler level, then one can take on others' misfortunes upon oneself. Again, there exists only circumstantial proof which is far from verifiable.

Stories of great spiritual beings who in their death seem to have experienced signs of many illnesses manifesting their entry and exit in their bodies. And as the stories go, at the very same time, people in the vicinity start to get cured of their ailments and severe degenerative diseases. I'm no intellectual. And I admit it takes quite a measure of blind faith to believe these stories.

But aren't our lives always inspired by events like that? When humans take on and accomplish tasks and ideals beyond what seems to be beyond our abilities? When an athlete breaks records which have never been broken for the past century. When a person gives up his/her life in service of others. When people heal the sick through prayer. When one survives and prospers despite having all odds stacked against him/her.

I might be making mountains out of this insignificant examples. But could our existence bother on the divine and infinite? Could our own nature be that very same potential? Could we be bigger than life?

I've no answers. But I know the inspiration will live on and affect many others.

Sunday 9 March 2008

GRBB and PIPS testing

To take accounts seriously, last week I made 10 trades. 6 losses, 1 breakeven and 3 winning trades. All trades were of size 1 mini lot. Total loss of USD 236.85, winning trades raked in USD 277.48. So that makes a gain of USD 40.63 for a 30% hit rate. Starting capital was 355.87, so that makes my gain over 10% for a week's trading.

I am very happy with this week. Not because of the gain of 10% (after all, 40 bucks is hardly anything) but because I managed to follow my declared intention to use and actively test a system.

And after trading conscientiously for a week, I realised this is not an impossible and unachievable dream. I can possibly trade properly and profitably by the end of the year of so. In fact, I hope it's earlier. But hard work awaits. Another observation: This week was a difficult week to trade. Mainly because many pairs are hitting or have gone beyond historical highs or lows. So it is hard to say if the pairs have momentum, especially when I'm trying to trade using TNT methods.

My consolation is that, many a times, I spot the trade when the price is quite close to the short Moving Averages. So I get really good positions. In fact, my profitable trades ran my floating capital to a high of USD 900+ at some point in time. (But you really have to discount 300 off that because of an earlier mistake, profitable one though)

So that's one more issue. How do I get the best out of a trade? I had trades that ran up to more than 200 pips positive but then hit my protective stop at +120 pips. I think it's probably every trader's heartache. But it shouldn't be. Especially if you are trading according to your system. Having said so, always evaluate your system and trading methods and see if you can get more out of the market. That's where the bookkeeping columns suggested by Dr. Alexander Elder is very useful - maximum paper profit and maximum paper loss after stoploss/profit target levels are hit. That would help one track if one is trading too conservatively or being overly greedy.

Met Firman yesterday. Had a good session of info-exchange. One thing I can never match Kelvin and Firman is in their boundless energies and devotion to trading. From Firman's end, he told me of 5 different methods he tested the last week or so. The most interesting is probably rainbow moving averages. I think I want to put in a picture of that here to show you guys how fascinating the visual representation of price movements can be. So here it is:

Beautiful, isn't it? This picture, of course, shows a downtrend. Unfortunately, the system is designed for scalping. Not my style definitely.

So my next move is this. Oh, before that, I should say my good but unprofitable trades this week mostly were signals from the TNT method. So I'm admittedly in favour of testing the PIPS and GRBB methods now. Quite a powerful indicator in hindsight. As are many indicators. So I'm alerted by Firman to the "REPAINTER effect". Essentially it means indicates change their signals according to past price data so that it appears, during backtesting, that the indicators work perfectly in accordance with trends in price changes.

So that task 1 of the week. Check out if the GRBB is a repainter program. And to have that. Once a day I will take a picture (screenshot) of the currency pairs on my charts and indicate (by putting in arrows) when the last bar is when I took the picture. Then I'll match them to those I see on the following day to see if they changed.

The second part is, certainly, to trade the system. For that I think I want to be thinking of the best time frame to trade in. So I'll put in the GRBB-PIPS indicators on 1 hour charts as well and monitor them according to current trading rules.

So that's my aim for the week. I'll submit my report next week!

Monday 3 March 2008

The battle analogy (permission of Kelvin)

If any single one thinks trading is a boring sport, involving only clicking, then I'm pleased to present to you an extremely creative and engaging version of what really happens on the market. This was from an email from Kelvin, which he allegedly spent half an hour on. (Now, don't tell him this, but I think I would have taken as longer as he did)

On 28th February, Kelvin shared his trade with us: (adapted)

"Here comes the interesting part: i would hereby present the screen shot of this movie titled The Battle at the Fort.

The leader of the white soldier is planning an attack at the fort( 213 area). but knowing that the 213 fort is a very strong wan, he needs to motivate his soldiers. so he play solo and starts his attack, he slaughtered many black soldiers and each time he advances, the black soldiers is getting less and less defensive. (Higher High, Lower High), which leads him nearer to the fort. thus he thinks tt he had completed the first part of the plan which is to lead his soldiers into thinking tt it is indeed possible to get near the fort and eventually break it, in other words he had managed to motivate his soldiers and fill them with fighting spirit.
And finally the attack began, he told his soldiers, 'guys, if we manage to break their fort we will win this battle and beyond the fort contains food that we all need and lots of chiobu that we may need too, so give it all your best' and all his soldiers said 'Yes Sir!'
if u look at the hourly chart, u can see massive attack at the fort, chaos is happening there, firing of arrows, sounds of swords clink clung clink clung, shouting and fighting, heads and hands flying around, blood spilling etc etc. the best fighting action of the movie is at the 30 min chart. u should take a gd look at the 30 min chart now.

As u can see white soldiers give it all their best but the fort is just too strong. what the leader did not realize that he is putting himself in a 'either u win or lose position' the battle of the fort decides the outcome of this battle, if he conquered the fort, he'll win and price will rocket. but he is commencing a full force attack and put all his soldiers at risk. if he cannot break the fort, he will have not much soldiers left for defence. as u can c he cant break the fort and now the leader of the black soldier says: "hey guys, they do do not have much soldiers left, it's time to counter attack. he does not need to motivate his soldiers and bluff them that there's a lot of food or there are white lady to f*** if they win because all the black soldiers know that they can win easily.
as they were counter attacking, black soldiers face some problem at the camp of the white soldiers. this camp( upper triangle ) is where there are still some white soldiers and the upper triangle( res turned support) had managed to push back some black soldiers. when the leader of the black soldier saw this, he employed the bluff tactic now and say to his soldiers, hey guys if we can take their camp, beyond their camp has lots of food and white ladies, I'll give u all the permission to fcuk them if we win. the black soldiers became so highly motivated that they killed more than a hundred white soldiers in an hr! if u look at hourly chart that's 110 pips in an hr. and well that's the end of the battle and the black soldier won. but it's not the end of the movie yet, this movie is forever and the eternal battle between the white and black soldiers will keep goin on.

The last attachment is a 4hr chart, but the triangle is drawn is a bit different from the previous wan, this is drawn on a 4hr chart. initially i plan to say that let's see if S3 holds. but as i was telling my story i realise S3 not only hold but push price back to 212.

anywae that's the end of this email, i spent half an hr plus typing it! my typing speed slow bo bian. also dunno whether my story make sense not or I'm just wrapped up in my own world of story telling world which has no link to the real world (market). LOL!"

So that ends the story, but not without some clips!
Enjoy!





A fresh start

Well, if you notice I'm always giving myself fresh starts, I must admit apologetically that it is true. But I hope it is not of any consequence and have not become a habit. Last week, I stopped trading altogether (which I realised, today, wasn't entirely true). Well, I didn't trade in my dreams, or sleep-trade (cf. sleepwalk), but I did make the same old mistake again. The profitable one. This time it is EUR/USD. Longed the pair on the 21st of February, set the SL and forgot all about it. Today I've closed the trade at a positive 350 pips. A nice gain, but again, a mistake that shouldn't have been committed in the first place.

But maybe I should tell you guys a little about why I took a break. Well, the simple and apparent reason is to focus on my academic obligations. I have a backlog of 6 weeks' worth of material to review and integrate into my being before my tests within the next 2 weeks. I've had many thoughts and, as undisciplined as I am, many other non-academic activities along the way.

BUT the reason isn't that simple. I stopped trading because for 2 straight weeks, and on two weekly meetings with Kelvin and Firman, I reported losses. None of my trades went right. And the reason? Because I confused the two systems, PIPS and TNT. (taught by my mentor)

Also, Miranda, my girlfriend, awakened me to my low sense of commitment and urgency towards learning and ultimately professionally trading Forex. I have no doubt I can only see forex trading as my way out of this rut - this situation of (relative) poverty and non-self-sufficiency. And as aware as she was, I knew I was committing enough to my cause. I traded infrequently, and often not adopting any proper system. The tragedy occurs - I fail time and again to keep a demo account afloat. Then the irony sets in, for I repeatedly advice people to trade by a strict system, for it helps not only personal accountability but also in tracking the reliability and efficiency of any system.

I decided to start again. But with what but a bad load of trades and loads of ill-discipline on my hands? Well...remember the extra-academic activities I did? Part of that was thinking. In part an angry response to an event, I thought long and hard about idealism. That is too much of a word to encapsulate the essence. I should say "dreams". And I went wondering, why do people set goals way beyond themselves, when the aims are remotely possible or maybe totally impossible? I watched The Last Samurai two times and tried to figure what is the value of a romantic ideal of self-sacrifice and directing all of one's energy and time to perfect one single task. Why aim for the moon? Why try to be perfect?

Motivation. That's the answer I got. How possible would becoming rich be if one never starts to think it possible for him/herself? The fact is, romantic and far-fetched ideals attract us. The ideas of saintliness, holiness, compassion, power, riches (in all its perfections) are inclinations within us.

So I uncover another layer of meaning and significance behind the mental practices as advised by Napolean Hill in Think and Grow Rich.

My Plan

I shall build my forex trading and training program in steps. The first is my basic code of conduct, the rules I shall trade by regardless of the system I choose to adopt in future.
(I think I'll talk more about them later this week)

The intermediate step is to implement the two trading systems - PIPS and TNT separately. For that purpose, I've totally segregated the indicators onto 2 different charts.

My immediate concern is twofold. One, to design the excel sheet to properly account for, and later analyse, my trades. Two, to trade both systems on 4hour charts.

My ultimate goal: TO GO 'LIVE' BY THE END OF JUNE.

I hope it is not too late then.

Thursday 24 January 2008

Yeah! Great maiden trades in 2008 and some good progress

Hi fellow traders!
Here are my trades: (as per my email to my forex group, which is mentored by Clarence)

Trade 1
Date : 23-Jan-08
Currency pair : EUR/USD
Position : Short
Time Position open (GMT) : 09:26
Strategy Used : TNT Short Swing (continuation) + PIPS
Entry price : 1.4620
Stop Loss : 1.4670 (50pips) then changed to 1.4620 (0 pips)
Target Profit : 1.4525 (key support level)
Profit: 95 pips @ GMT 13:56

Trade 2
Date : 23-Jan-08
Currency pair : EUR/JPY
Position : Short
Time Position open (GMT) : 06:00
Strategy Used : TNT Short Swing (continuation) + PIPS
Entry price : 1.5568
Stop Loss : 1.5610 (42pips) then changed to 1.5568 (0 pips), then 1.5500(PS 68 pips)
Target Profit : 1.5300 (key support level)
Profit: 268 pips @ GMT 13:22

I'm real happy to have this 2 trades after such a long time not trading. I think a few things to share. One thing, the stipulated SL as per one's system is very very important.

The rationale is this: if you get the wrong signal, you have to get out and wait for the next signal which will actually give you gains. And usually that gives you a better price to get into.

The next thing is that we should always look from a big picture. In both trades, I looked for potential on the daily and weekly charts for the currency pair to move more in the direction I believe it will go.

That much said, I am going to get a gift from Clarence (CNY ang pow). Well, not quite any money or red packets, but he is giving away a certain indicator and the system which he designed to traders who achieve some measure of understanding of his initial system, TNT. Apparently, the system is meant to be more passive, requiring nothing more than weekly monitoring of one's trades.

He's gone on to start a full trading course with "live" support (and I suspect for, at least his, lifetime). Very amazing deal, with other trading schools offering something like 6 to 12 months follow up.

So that's a big congrats to him. And a small pat on the back for me.

Now that I learnt to use the BOLDEN effect. Maybe I should use it to organise my blogposts.

Tuition with Kelvin
Haha...I still call it tuition because it is hilarious to think of it that way. And if it really is "tuition" then it's 2 way -- I learn very much from Kelvin.

For one, we make promises to each other to put effort in accomplishing certain goals over the following week before our next session. Then we meet and we see what have we done. And we review our trades together.

For this week, I told Kelvin I'll continue trading according to the TNT and PIPS system. On his suggestion, I also committed myself to doing some backtesting of the TNT system, at least 20 trades by Sunday.

NO MONEY!!
Haha. Well, I know this is an issue many people my age face. And this problem is compounded by the fact that I am reluctant to give tuition (personal reasons - maybe I'll talk about them later) and also unwilling to work for lower-end hourly wages (5-6 bucks/hour). Well, sounds like I am typically middle-class, who can't adapt changes in the economic landscape.

I don't deny I might be stuck in such a situation but I draw inspiration from my favorite trading book "Adventures of a Currency Trader". As per the story, I will work to earn my right to trade. But for now, it's still studies and forex first.

To all...please share your trades and thoughts with me! I'm sure we'll all learn much from one another.

Monday 7 January 2008

More motivation needed!

I've been wanting to put in this entry for the past few days. But as discipline (or lack of it) would dictate, I never got down to it till now.

I had wonderful meetings last weekend.

This were words typed some 7 days ago, on the 7th of January in this new year.

Amazing, isn't it, that I can take so many days of procrastination to finally sit down and complete this post. But I'm glad I'm doing it anyway.

I won't dwell too much of matters of the past in this entry, but I must say my meetings left me with resolutions, which I haven't followed or complied with last week. So odd a mind I have that I don't do what I want to do.

An afternoon chat with Firman and Kelvin left me with the impetus to come up with a list of "to-dos" concerning forex. And that would ensure I come into contact daily with forex too. But that was not to be given my ill discipline.

But I just had a conversation with Kelvin and we promised one another to do trades and note them down in a log book so that we can review and learn from one another ('s trades) when we meet coming Saturday.

On top of that, I'll refine and reaffirm my current promise to myself to ensure sufficient contact, on a daily basis, with forex trading. I've 3 main concerns as follows:

1. Do backtesting of TNT strategies on 4hr charts - 5 trade studies a day

2. Clear the backlog of emails from my mentor's yahoogroup - 50 emails a day

3. Look for trade opportunities daily and read Daily Analysis - Done DAILY, analysis at 9am
sent by Clarence

So that's it for now. And I pray I can PERSEVERE, and later develop proper trading PSYCHOLOGY, based on a strong PHILOSOPHY of life and trading. That is the 3P formula devised by Kelvin.

Alright, wish me luck and effort guys!